On impeachment, Trump holds all the cards. At least for now

As President Trump demonstrated Wednesday, he might be the focus of endless congressional investigations, but when it comes to the question of impeachment he holds all the cards. At least for now.

Trump invited House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer to the White House on Wednesday to discuss a full legislative agenda from a new infrastructure bill to a new free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. But the president reportedly entered the meeting room and didn’t even shake hands before saying there would be no legislative progress until the Democrats stopped investigating him in Congress. He then headed to the Rose Garden and proceeded to give a lively, albeit meandering, press conference.

Earlier in the day, Pelosi had met with Democratic members to discuss complaints that she had not pushed to investigate the president even more.

Last week, the administration began stonewalling Congress by refusing to hand over documents and barring current or former members of the administration from honoring congressional subpoenas demanding that they testify.

This move caused some House Democrats to support for the first time beginning impeachment proceedings, if only as a means to allow Congress to play its oversight role.

Still, Pelosi has refused to budge in her belief that moving toward impeachment right now would only play into Trump’s hands.

Here is the truth: If Democrats begin impeachment proceedings, it is highly unlikely that Trump will be removed from office. Even if a majority of the House votes to impeach Trump, it would take a two-thirds majority in the Senate to remove Trump from office. That would mean at least 20 Republicans would need to vote to remove Trump from office if every Democratic caucus member did so. Besides, time is running out, with the 2020 presidential election already underway. So, Pelosi’s argument goes, why start a fight that Congress cannot win?

It is possible that impeachment proceedings could generate a major bombshell that would rivet the nation and convince enough Republicans that Trump has to go. But that would mean that suddenly Congress would unearth something that the highly respected Special Counsel Robert Mueller and his team did not after two years of digging.

Pelosi’s belief is that pursuing impeachment would only help the president politically. It would force moderate Republican voters, for example, to choose clear sides, whereas right now they could be open to voting for the right Democrat for president. Moderate independent voters, for their part, may wonder if Democrats stand for anything other than just opposing Trump.

The latest polling suggests that the American people are clearly telling the Democrats what to do. A majority of voters say they don’t want to begin impeachment proceedings. At the same time, a majority say they won’t vote to reelect Trump. While national polls don’t equate to the granular workings of the Electoral College, the findings are clear: The smart move is to just defeat Trump in 2020.

Some Democrats, like Representative Seth Moulton or even former Texas representative Beto O’Rourke, say the stakes for American democracy are so high that there is a duty to explore impeachment even if it means short-term problems for the Democratic Party.

The scene Wednesday — Trump storming out of a White House meeting with Schumer and Pelosi — reminded many of the time he did the same thing in December before a government shutdown. It didn’t work out for him that time.

But this time the politics are much different. Pelosi held the cards then. This time, she knows Trump has the better hand — and she is encouraging her fellow Democrats to not even play the game.